TAKE IT TO THE SEA: NONMILITARY ACTORS IN CHINA’S MARITIME DISPUTES AND CRISIS MANAGEMENT

Two decades into the 21st century, China still faces a plethora of unsettled territorial and boundary disputes on its maritime frontier spanning from the Yellow Sea, East China Sea, and the South China Sea. These disputes cover strategically significant maritime space and involve U.S. treaty allies. As China’s power grows and it aspires to exert greater control over its periphery, how China handles local incidents arising from these disputes touches on the fundamental question of whether its rise will mean peace or instability for the region. There is a growing number of incidents arising from these disputes over the past twenty years, but China’s way of handling these incidents has varied widely. It has not always adopted an assertive, escalatory posture as its power continues to grow, nor has it invariably taken an accommodating, deescalatory posture as its good neighborly diplomacy strategy would suggest. When will China escalate an incident arising from its maritime disputes and when will it opt for deescalation? Should it choose to escalate, how does China calibrate its escalatory measures in terms of their nature (nonmilitary or military) and strength (restrained or forceful)? To account for the variation, this study develops a two-step theoretical framework to explain when, why, and how rising powers such as China choose to escalate or deescalate local incidents arising from unsettled maritime sovereignty and jurisdiction disputes. I argue that when deciding whether to escalate such incidents, leaders often simultaneously face two types of costs generated respectively by domestic and international audiences with oftentimes competing expectations, and thus a decision to escalate or deescalate entails a tradeoff between these two types of audience costs. Should China choose to escalate, it calibrates escalatory measures based on its assessment of one of the two criteria: the likelihood of being presented with a fait accompli by the adversary; or, should it have already been presented with a fait accompli during the crisis, the prospect of reversing it through negotiations. Several key findings emerge from this study. First, China has not been invariably prone to taking an escalatory posture in maritime disputes as its power grows. Rather, its decision of escalation or deescalation is a function of the interplay between the pulling and hauling among its domestic parochial interests on the one hand and Beijing’s assessment of China’s geopolitical environment on the other. Second, and counterintuitively, smaller countries can have substantial leverage over rising powers, contrasting the long-enshrined Thucydides dictum that “the strong do what they have the power to do and the weak accept what they have to accept.” China cares as much about its reputation for resolve as that for its image of nonbelligerency, suggesting that rising powers’ understanding of reputation is often two-pronged. Third, China has demonstrated a high level of sensitivity to the prospect of the adversary engaging in a fait accompli tactic. A fait accompli that China views as irreversibly altering the status quo, be that physically or nonphysically, can create strong motivations for China to undertake highly risky military escalation to compel for a reversal or compensate for its perceived losses

AMatFormer: Efficient Feature Matching via Anchor Matching Transformer

Learning based feature matching methods have been commonly studied in recent years. The core issue for learning feature matching is to how to learn (1) discriminative representations for feature points (or regions) within each intra-image and (2) consensus representations for feature points across inter-images. Recently, self- and cross-attention models have been exploited to address this issue. However, in many scenes, features are coming with large-scale, redundant and outliers contaminated. Previous self-/cross-attention models generally conduct message passing on all primal features which thus lead to redundant learning and high computational cost. To mitigate limitations, inspired by recent seed matching methods, in this paper, we propose a novel efficient Anchor Matching Transformer (AMatFormer) for the feature matching problem. AMatFormer has two main aspects: First, it mainly conducts self-/cross-attention on some anchor features and leverages these anchor features as message bottleneck to learn the representations for all primal features. Thus, it can be implemented efficiently and compactly. Second, AMatFormer adopts a shared FFN module to further embed the features of two images into the common domain and thus learn the consensus feature representations for the matching problem. Experiments on several benchmarks demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of the proposed AMatFormer matching approach.Comment: Accepted by IEEE Transactions on Multimedia (TMM) 202

Digital breast tomosynthesis-based peritumoral radiomics approaches in the differentiation of benign and malignant breast lesions

PURPOSEWe aimed to evaluate digital breast tomosynthesis (DBT)-based radiomics in the differentiation of benign and malignant breast lesions in women.METHODSA total of 185 patients who underwent DBT scans were enrolled between December 2017 and June 2019. The features of handcrafted and deep learning-based radiomics were extracted from the tumoral and peritumoral regions with different radial dilation distances outside the tumor. A 3-step method was used to select discriminative features and develop the radiomics signature. Discriminative clinical factors were identified by univariate logistic regression. The clinical fac- tors with P < .05 were used to build a clinical model with multivariate logistic regression. The radiomics nomogram was developed by integrating the radiomics signature and discriminative clinical factors. Discriminative performance of the radiomics signature, clinical model, nomo- gram, and breast imaging reporting and data system assessment were evaluated and compared with the receiver operating characteristic and decision curves analysis (DCA).RESULTSA total of 2 handcrafted and 2 deep features were identified as the most discriminative features from the peritumoral regions with 2 mm dilation distances and used to develop the radiomics signature. The nomogram incorporating the radiomics signature, age, and menstruation status showed the best discriminative performance with area under the curve (AUC) values of 0.980 (95% CI, 0.960 to 1.000; sensitivity =0.970, specificity =0.946) in the training cohort and 0.985 (95% CI, 0.960 to 1.000; sensitivity = 0.909, specificity = 0.966) in the validation cohort. DCA con- firmed the potential clinical usefulness of our nomogram.CONCLUSIONOur results illustrate that the radiomics nomogram integrating the DBT imaging features and clinical factors (age and menstruation status) can be considered as a useful tool in aiding the clinical diagnosis of breast cancer

Machine learning-based early diagnosis of autism according to eye movements of real and artificial faces scanning

BackgroundStudies on eye movements found that children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) had abnormal gaze behavior to social stimuli. The current study aimed to investigate whether their eye movement patterns in relation to cartoon characters or real people could be useful in identifying ASD children.MethodsEye-tracking tests based on videos of cartoon characters and real people were performed for ASD and typically developing (TD) children aged between 12 and 60 months. A three-level hierarchical structure including participants, events, and areas of interest was used to arrange the data obtained from eye-tracking tests. Random forest was adopted as the feature selection tool and classifier, and the flattened vectors and diagnostic information were used as features and labels. A logistic regression was used to evaluate the impact of the most important features.ResultsA total of 161 children (117 ASD and 44 TD) with a mean age of 39.70 ± 12.27 months were recruited. The overall accuracy, precision, and recall of the model were 0.73, 0.73, and 0.75, respectively. Attention to human-related elements was positively related to the diagnosis of ASD, while fixation time for cartoons was negatively related to the diagnosis.ConclusionUsing eye-tracking techniques with machine learning algorithms might be promising for identifying ASD. The value of artificial faces, such as cartoon characters, in the field of ASD diagnosis and intervention is worth further exploring

China Studies Review

In our first section, we introduce three short pieces that examine important issues in U.S.-China investment relations, public opinion in China and Japan, and the Hong Kong pro-democracy move-ment. Benjamin Pollock examines the progression of negotiations between the United States and China in adopting a high-quality bilateral investment treaty. Cheng Zhang uses data from Genron to understand the reasons behind mutual dis-trust between China and Japan. Adrienne Dalton looks at the role of Hong Kong triads in the suppression of the 2014 Hong Kong pro-democracy demonstrations. Our second section features six research articles covering a wide range of topics. Jakob Bund explores U.S.-China relations in cyberspace and provides an alternative framework by which the two countries can cooperate in the absence of trust. Patrick Lozada discusses China’s “creative indus-tries”, and the shortcomings of China’s creative special economic zones in foster-ing an innovation economy. David Rubin builds upon Bruce Gilley’s spectrum of democratic and authoritarian environ-mentalism and finds that in the context of environmental policymaking, China is transitioning towards more inclusivity and grassroots engagement. Peter Kim also examines China’s environmental policy and uses dust and sandstorms, also known as “yellow dust”, to examine the challenges and opportunities for environmental coop-eration in Northeast Asia. Shuxian Luo conducts a comparative analysis of China and India’s naval modernization efforts, noting that while China’s rapid economic development has spurred its naval modern-ization at a more rapid pace, there are other important elements such as differing threat perceptions and alliance options that help to explain India’s relative lag in naval mod-ernization. Finally, Winston Kung presents a Taiwan Straits crisis scenario analysis that examines the legal, diplomatic, strategic, and domestic opinion factors that would likely affect a U.S. response, concluding that U.S. diplomatic and military leverage would eventually lead China and Taiwan to de-escalate tensions in the region

Early postoperative calcitonin-to-preoperative calcitonin ratio as a predictive marker for structural recurrence in sporadic medullary thyroid cancer: A retrospective study

BackgroundCalcitonin (Ctn) is widely used as a marker in the diagnosis, prognosis, and postoperative follow-up of patients with medullary thyroid carcinoma (MTC). The prognostic value of postoperative calcitonin-to-preoperative calcitonin ratio (CR), reflecting the change in Ctn level of response to initial treatment, remains uncertain in long-term disease outcomes. This study aims to determine the cut-off value of CR for predicting structural recurrence and assess the prognostic role of CR in patients with MTC.MethodsWe retrospectively reviewed patients with MTC in Sun Yat-sen University Cancer Center (SYSUCC) between 2000 and 2022. CR is defined as the ratio of postoperative Ctn level on the day of discharge divided by preoperative Ctn level. In order to determine the optimal cut-off value of CR, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was performed. We evaluate the effect of CR on recurrence-free survival (RFS) by using the Kaplan-Meier method and Cox regression analysis. Then, a nomogram based on CR was constructed.ResultsIn total, 112 sporadic MTC patients were included in this study. The optimal cut-off value of CR that predicted disease recurrence was 0.125. Patients with CR≥0.125 showed significantly worse RFS than patients with CR &lt;0.125, respectively (3-years RFS rate of 63.1 vs. 94.7%, 5-years RFS rate of 50.7 vs. 90.3%, P &lt; 0.001). In the multivariate analysis, CR was the strongest independent predictor of structural recurrence (HR: 5.050, 95% CI: 2.247–11.349, P &lt;0.001). Tumor size (HR: 1.321, 95% CI: 1.010–1.726, P =0.042), multifocality (HR: 2.258, 95% CI: 1.008–5.058, P =0.048) and metastasized lymph nodes (HR: 3.793, 95% CI: 1.617–8.897, P &lt;0.001) were also independent predictors of structural recurrence. The uncorrected concordance index (c-index) of the nomogram was 0.827 (95% CI, 0.729-0.925) for RFS, and bias-corrected c-index were similar. As compared to TNM stage, the nomogram based on CR provided better discrimination accuracy.ConclusionsWe demonstrate that CR is a strong prognostic marker to predict structural recurrence in patients with sporadic MTC. The nomogram incorporating CR provided useful prediction of RFS for patients with sporadic MTC to provide personalized treatment

Murine Cytomegalovirus Infection of Neural Stem Cells Alters Neurogenesis in the Developing Brain

Congenital cytomegalovirus (CMV) brain infection causes serious neuro-developmental sequelae including: mental retardation, cerebral palsy, and sensorineural hearing loss. But, the mechanisms of injury and pathogenesis to the fetal brain are not completely understood. The present study addresses potential pathogenic mechanisms by which this virus injures the CNS using a neonatal mouse model that mirrors congenital brain infection. This investigation focused on, analysis of cell types infected with mouse cytomegalovirus (MCMV) and the pattern of injury to the developing brain.We used our MCMV infection model and a multi-color flow cytometry approach to quantify the effect of viral infection on the developing brain, identifying specific target cells and the consequent effect on neurogenesis. In this study, we show that neural stem cells (NSCs) and neuronal precursor cells are the principal target cells for MCMV in the developing brain. In addition, viral infection was demonstrated to cause a loss of NSCs expressing CD133 and nestin. We also showed that infection of neonates leads to subsequent abnormal brain development as indicated by loss of CD24(hi) cells that incorporated BrdU. This neonatal brain infection was also associated with altered expression of Oct4, a multipotency marker; as well as down regulation of the neurotrophins BDNF and NT3, which are essential to regulate the birth and differentiation of neurons during normal brain development. Finally, we report decreased expression of doublecortin, a marker to identify young neurons, following viral brain infection.MCMV brain infection of newborn mice causes significant loss of NSCs, decreased proliferation of neuronal precursor cells, and marked loss of young neurons

Real-time Monitoring for the Next Core-Collapse Supernova in JUNO

Core-collapse supernova (CCSN) is one of the most energetic astrophysical events in the Universe. The early and prompt detection of neutrinos before (pre-SN) and during the SN burst is a unique opportunity to realize the multi-messenger observation of the CCSN events. In this work, we describe the monitoring concept and present the sensitivity of the system to the pre-SN and SN neutrinos at the Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO), which is a 20 kton liquid scintillator detector under construction in South China. The real-time monitoring system is designed with both the prompt monitors on the electronic board and online monitors at the data acquisition stage, in order to ensure both the alert speed and alert coverage of progenitor stars. By assuming a false alert rate of 1 per year, this monitoring system can be sensitive to the pre-SN neutrinos up to the distance of about 1.6 (0.9) kpc and SN neutrinos up to about 370 (360) kpc for a progenitor mass of 30$M_{\odot}$ for the case of normal (inverted) mass ordering. The pointing ability of the CCSN is evaluated by using the accumulated event anisotropy of the inverse beta decay interactions from pre-SN or SN neutrinos, which, along with the early alert, can play important roles for the followup multi-messenger observations of the next Galactic or nearby extragalactic CCSN.Comment: 24 pages, 9 figure

Potential of Core-Collapse Supernova Neutrino Detection at JUNO

JUNO is an underground neutrino observatory under construction in Jiangmen, China. It uses 20kton liquid scintillator as target, which enables it to detect supernova burst neutrinos of a large statistics for the next galactic core-collapse supernova (CCSN) and also pre-supernova neutrinos from the nearby CCSN progenitors. All flavors of supernova burst neutrinos can be detected by JUNO via several interaction channels, including inverse beta decay, elastic scattering on electron and proton, interactions on C12 nuclei, etc. This retains the possibility for JUNO to reconstruct the energy spectra of supernova burst neutrinos of all flavors. The real time monitoring systems based on FPGA and DAQ are under development in JUNO, which allow prompt alert and trigger-less data acquisition of CCSN events. The alert performances of both monitoring systems have been thoroughly studied using simulations. Moreover, once a CCSN is tagged, the system can give fast characterizations, such as directionality and light curve

Detection of the Diffuse Supernova Neutrino Background with JUNO

As an underground multi-purpose neutrino detector with 20 kton liquid scintillator, Jiangmen Underground Neutrino Observatory (JUNO) is competitive with and complementary to the water-Cherenkov detectors on the search for the diffuse supernova neutrino background (DSNB). Typical supernova models predict 2-4 events per year within the optimal observation window in the JUNO detector. The dominant background is from the neutral-current (NC) interaction of atmospheric neutrinos with 12C nuclei, which surpasses the DSNB by more than one order of magnitude. We evaluated the systematic uncertainty of NC background from the spread of a variety of data-driven models and further developed a method to determine NC background within 15\% with {\it{in}} {\it{situ}} measurements after ten years of running. Besides, the NC-like backgrounds can be effectively suppressed by the intrinsic pulse-shape discrimination (PSD) capabilities of liquid scintillators. In this talk, I will present in detail the improvements on NC background uncertainty evaluation, PSD discriminator development, and finally, the potential of DSNB sensitivity in JUNO